Prophesy Power Rankings: SLB 25/26 League Predictions
The new SLB season is almost here—and the talent level has never been higher. From EuroCup-level rosters in London to ambitious rebuilds in Surrey and Caledonia, every team has something to prove.
If you thought last season was competitive, buckle up. The SLB is shaping up for its most stacked year yet, with powerhouse signings, defensive juggernauts, and wildcard teams ready to shock the table.
Pro scout, Prophesy, breaks down who’s hot, who’s hungry, and who’s got something to prove.
Tier 1
London Lions (Sabonis, 1st):
1st (range of positions: 1st-2nd)
This position choice summed up in a simple sentence - too much additive firepower in a cohesively structured roster. The roster spend comparatively against the league would, practically speaking, dwarf the rest of the competition - this is what should happen 99 times out of 100 if some deity made us replay the league in a Groundhog's day-like scenario.
Shavar Reynolds Jr. is a point-guard coming off leading PAOK to a FIBA Europe Cup final - shifty guard with terrific, high-level shotmaking and advantage creation using his high level deceleration in the mid-range (shot a ridiculous near 50FG% off-the-dribble in the mid-range in Greece). He has terrific feel (loves putting defenders in jail) and use of tempo in the PNR coupled with good playmaking off his scoring threat. Physically, he battles as a hard-nosed on-ball defender with a good level of strength especially for a ‘smaller guard’ (although very much league-average here in the SLB) in mismatch scenarios. An issue with guarding Shavar at this level is that, through his physicality, he really punishes smaller guards due to his game being primarily decel-based, where he’ll be able to leverage his comparative advantages into generating more space on his bumps off defenders (often not the case at higher levels). A downside is his lack of absolute rim-pressure (often has to Nash dribble out of attacking the rim, less capable of generating clean rim-looks for himself as evidenced by his huge reliance on mid-range baskets). Kameron McGusty is a pure shotmaker as a tricky 6’6” combo-guard (unprecedented level of size and skill at our level), again exceptional at creating looks in the mid-range as a handler and good shot-making from three. Defensively, in Poland he was asked to guard at the point-of-attack against 1’s, where he was very tricky to get past especially with his quick hands and good lateral quickness. He can be quite iso-heavy as a decision-maker/handler, and again is lacking in absolute advantage creating speed/physicality in being able to generate consistent rim looks/able to finish as a value-adding on-ball creator (which’ll probably come up more in EuroCup, but is exploitable in the SLB with the right defensive scheme).
With these two elite creation guards it’ll be exceptionally tough to handle them. This is combined with the offense-smothering defense of Tarik Phillip, Mo Soluade and Amin Adamu as strong point-of-attack defenders - offenses, especially in the SLB where there is a huge precedence in orienting offenses around guard play, will struggle to run (absolutely no respite).
They have proper EuroCup-size with 6’7”, 220lb Ryan Mikesell at the 3 (who loves to exploit his physicality through Barkley’s - posting up defenders on his drives - not great in a league that often plays small). He’ll have better on-ball/iso creation than most of our guards in the league as a secondary option, excellent get-out-of-jail late shot clock option as a value-adding additional wing piece if the play breaks down. He is relatively versatile defensively which is a plus. His shot from three can be very inconsistent despite him being willing and having solid enough shotmaking off-screens (where he was quite often ran in Germany), and his finishing at the rim can be (especially for the EuroCup level which will be a concern) inconsistent and quite wild (in terms of shot selection). High-motor physical specimen stretch 4/5 Joel Scott is a very interesting piece they added - mobile, exceptionally physical and strong, defensive athlete that can knock down the three at solid volume while having excellently low turnover percentages, solid level of speed at the 4-spot as a close-out attacker and good cutter for a stretch-option. On the flipside, he is quite limited beyond advantage situations in terms of absolute offensive value adding, although he can score against mis-matches in the post.
High-level skilled playmaking mobile big and above-the-rim finisher Johnathan Williams III is their 5-man (relatively small for the EuroCup level, which could also potentially be an advantage for teams with legit size, but very physical and great vertical athlete in terms of his finishing around the rim), with an elite, versatile stretch-5 option in GB rookie Ethan Price to stretch defenses out to their limit with his ability to knock down looks moving off screens coupled with a downhill threat.
They have endless bench tools to inject energy and defense (Deane Williams as a 4-man with athleticism and additional rim protection at that spot our league seldom sees, Ovie Soko as a human screen-offense wrecking ball etc.) - too much to handle if their SLB roster is as is. In the game against Zalgiris, they had endless lineup combinations they could go to which made use of their excellent defensive personnel - where versatility in recruitment was clearly a very high priority (thus Johnathan Williams vs. a typical 5-man, Joel Scott as an out-of-left-field pick-up from Ludwigsberg who can slot in 3-5, and the British athlete pick-ups).
Potential weakness: true 5-size vs. Johnathan Williams (Matt Nicholson) and potentially game-plannable mid-range oriented creation from their guards (tend to settle in the mid-range/less voluminous at creating rim attempts, McGusty less physical as a finisher) in addition to Mikesell's relative inefficiency at the rim vs. proper rim protection. There’s a potential lack of offensive juice at the 4-spot depending on how many minutes or trust they give Rai this season (Joel/Deane more linear players with relative limitations if they're asked to create - even if Joel would be a physical handful in the post at the level of our league).
Manchester Basketball (Otten, 4th):
2nd (range of positions: 1st-4th)
First thing that sticks out with Manchester is their accumulative size in certain lineups, and defensive versatility (especially at the 3/4/5 spots). Kayne Henry and Zak Irvin as their projected two starting forwards both have the size to comfortably defend at the 4, or even in the post against 5's (as Kayne did in Germany, as Zak did last season), and the quickness to defend at the 1 (as Otten got Kayne Henry doing in Switzerland). Max Jones is a huge guard at 220lbs - can switch up with no sweat. When Kaiyem's on the floor, he is an incredible, disruptive defensive athlete comfortable guarding down. Matt Nicholson was springing out on the perimeter to disrupt opposing offenses’ screen play in Switzerland on the hedge while having the size and physicality of a 7-footer who projects to being the best rim protector we've seen in the league since Sharma (he is my favourite for Defensive Player of the Year). Zay Williams will be one of the most mobile 6'11” players we've seen in the league in a long time. Tim Adetukasi is a big mobile unit at 6’6” 240lbs.
What I'm trying to get across is - just like London, they have a lot of defensive bodies they can interchange without letting up on Otten's clearly evident onus on defensive intensity (just like Mandole, his predecessor). A lot of lineup versatility, and defensive tools they can throw to specific game-scenarios. Matt Nicholson will be a huge game-changer as a presence around the rim - with him their ceiling is incredibly high. Certain lineups will be incredibly hard to score on.
Offensively, Max Jones, with his physicality and crafty off-the-dribble game and shotmaking will be a very tough cover. Kaiyem Cleary is a high-level catch-and-shoot shotmaker that only requires an inch of space to hit. Kayne is a tough close-out cover with his ability to attack off-the-catch and good three-point shooting, plus ability to occasionally take secondary handling reps into his mid-range game/solid passing. Nicholson is a genuine lob threat and excellent passer, plus can score occasionally in the post. Their three guards are all knock-down shooters.
The question is how they balance their defensive personnel with offensive firepower - and a consistent issue will be the consistency in their scoring. Pjay Smith, as an advantage creating handler, might not be a top level guard in this league - instead conveying a lot of his value as a knockdown off-ball guard (where he is high-level in interacting well off of others, passing and relocating etc.) and having a relatively hard shot-diet on-ball quite dependent on tough looks off-the-dribble (due to a relatively average comparative ability to create space for himself/average rim pressure). Jordan Johnson creates a lot of advantages on-ball and has a tough off-the-dribble scoring game, but his defense is inconsistent and his decision-making in terms of attack/pass can sometimes be questionable (and struggles at the rim). Kayne and Zak in lineups at the ¾ is very tough defensively, but quite underpowered offensively relatively speaking. Kaiyem is an offensive get-out-of-jail-free card but has limitations in terms of his tunnel vision when in attack mode, and has a very tough shot diet when asked to create.
Potential weakness: this team, comparatively, has a lack of absolute on-ball creation at the guard spots (or consistent playmaking), or anyone really capable of generating consistent points at the rim through the roster - they are quite reliant on Otten's ability to generate players’ looks through actions/tough shotmaking considering Max Jones et al's strengths/weaknesses.
Can their offense keep chugging along?
Sheffield Sharks (Lyons, 3rd):
3rd (range of positions: 1st-4th)
The last one of the power triumvirate this season, Sheffield have immense firepower brimming from their guard spots in Rodney Chatman and tough shot-maker supreme Prentiss Nixon. In terms of downhill guard creation and playmaking gravity off of that, you'd be hard pressed to find a better guard than Chatman below any top domestic leagues/top level European competitions currently - in terms of taking a sledge hammer to defenses and creating advantage situations, especially in Atiba Lyons’ freedom valuing spread PNR and high-level floor-spacing (will get to that in a minute), there's no one better - and that, depending on his availability (will also get to that in a minute), means that, regardless, Sheffield's floor is sky high. In terms of powering an offense, even PAOK Europe-Cup finalist Shavar Reynolds might be rivaled. Prentiss is a good secondary handling offensive option considering his shot-making off-screens, versatile, shifty handle and good off-the-dribble game on-ball including solid kick-out game (which makes any lineup with the two immediately high level offensively considering the two can both create at a good level).
Now, Chatman's accompanied by one of the best off-ball three-point shooters this league has ever seen in Dirk Williams (who adapted his game to be more off-ball in ProA France and shot 40% from 3), and a long, rangy, knock-down stretch 4-man in William Lee that looks to provide the balance in defense/offense that Coach Lyons was looking for versus last season with Jake Groves, who can also punish close-outs with his simple mid-range pull-up game. The ever present glue-guy Jordan Ratinho is still there to provide floor spacing and smart defense, and Rodney Glasgow is still there to provide some of the best on-ball scoring from any back-up 1 in the league and leadership.
The addition of Jalen DeLoach offensively, might, versus the incredibly fluid offense of last year, really spark them to another level with his niche skills. First of all - it finally provides Chatman/Nixon with a vertical threat in the PNR. For all the pluses of Donovan Clay last season, and his ability to set tough screens, his actual threat (that defenses have to overcommit to - what you're really looking for is ‘checkmate situations’) as a rim roller isn't comparable - and that’ll create the dichotomy of the big defender having to either concede easy points on lobs or through the guard (considering the threat of Chatman in the PNR - very dangerous). The real value under the hood is his additive passing. He is an incredible passer with great vision. He is a very snappy short roll passer. His real skill is in hitting quick passes out to shooters as a connective piece who doesn’t need much of the ball (which is perfect for this team), acting as a secondary playmaker in a team with already a lot of creation.
Nick Kern, as a slasher combined with his drive and kick game, will be incredibly hard to stop, and, wherever Atiba puts him in the rotation, will mean a lot of efficient points generation on-ball which could be incredibly dangerous in second units - 6’6”, shifty handles, quickness and vertical explosion at the rim. He shot 50FG%+ on a good volume of self-created drives last season in the high-majors. Off-ball he’s a terrific cutter to synergise with Chatman/DeLoach, meaning he can be quite manoeuvrable in lineups (coupled with his athletic defense and nose for steals) even if he’ll struggle to shoot. His presence unlocks the viability of several larger lineups (can play the 2-spot feasibly without giving up much on-ball juice). Mervin James is a known entity in terms of his ability to score in iso/slashing situations, and is pure floor-raising offense (it’ll be interesting to see how he works into the squad and alongside the guards considering how much of an on-ball scoring burden he’s had to bear in College and at Surrey plus being a reluctant shooter despite his percentages).
Defensively, the combined length of Will Lee and Jalen DeLoach around the rim will create an almost twin-towers effect in terms of rim protection - DeLoach is a significant shot-blocker, Will Lee also solid. DeLoach is also incredibly mobile and high motor (so should also offset the rebounding issues last season). The lineup versatility (Dirk/Kern possibly at the 2, versatility/IQ of Ratinho etc.) is also intriguing.
The comparison is Manchester - versus Manchester, it’s fair to say that Sheffield, despite Kern’s addition of defensive disruption, DeLoach’s mobility and rim protection and pieces like Ratinho, are giving up some ground in terms of just pure defensive tools and bodies (pure depth and strategic pieces for them to interchange). Conversely, the firepower offensively is quite ahead (for Sheffield), with endless guard creation and high-powered off-ball players. I think the separation is marginal, but the potential games missed by Chatman/Kern/Mervin to start the season might lead to missed games in a chase that’ll be incredibly tight (I’d expect both to have close to, if not, single digit losses this season) hence the decision.
Potential weaknesses: pure defensive tools and depth, potential fit concerns.
Tier 2:
Cheshire Phoenix (Thomas, 5th):
4th (range of positions: 2nd-5th)
Now this is a Ben Thomas roster. In terms of aligned recruitment and correcting on past mistakes, it feels as though Cheshire have really nailed this past summer. It might even indicate an evolution from the styles of old that’ll make them even more suited, theoretically, to challenge the top than they have been in the past.
The addition of Frankie Policelli is a masterstroke by Ben - simply no one who provides a better fit for a team like Cheshire. 6’9” (legit NBA 4-man size) with the willingness of Skyler to bomb from deep, skilled straight-line handle game where he can create his own looks in the mid-range off-the-dribble, solid vision for a big wing in spreading the ball as a off-the-catch decision-maker, the mobility to play in transition and, most importantly considering their old deficits, be relatively defensively versatile and athletic enough to create events defensively through steals and blocks. Michael Diggins is a super athletic ⅘ man that defends at the rim, is mobile enough to switch, can knock down the three on solid volume plus attack a close-out on the perimeter like a wing. These two coupled with Skyler (who Ben started all three of - a huge lineup!), creates a good amount of space and off-ball threat, coupled with defensive value, for LaQuincy Rideau to play in and assist. Watching a big like Kevin Allen or Darnell Brodie have to guard either Diggins slashing to the rim in space or someone like Skyler or Policelli will be pure cinema.
The key word for this roster, versus the past, is defense and size. Tobias Cameron is also a very disruptive, versatile defender at 6’5” who could potentially play some 2. Matt Zona is a mobile 6’10” stretch-5 that is comfortable both defending and attacking from the perimeter (no Ulph as back-up this time). Offensively, Ben has a lot of skill and ball-handling at every spot on the court.
Across the 2-3 spots, Ben has looked in the margins in recruiting pure rim + threes players with good size from underheralded leagues that were efficient scoring-wise, and had very good assist %’s. Jaxon Brenchley comes from Georgia, and is a secondary ball-handler type that looks to slash and get to the rim or kick-out for threes. He’s an atypical athlete thriving moreso on body-control and deceptive tempo - that is to say, lacks traditional athletic measures (not very fast, non-existent vertical athlete). Considering his apprehension in shooting threes (moreso looking to slash) - it might be a touch awkward a fit alongside LaQuincy as the 2 in a 5-out system (he isn’t a fit like TJ Atwood who was a pure low-tempo half-court player purely thriving as a slasher/post-up scorer, but he’ll have to prove that he can be more comfortable putting up threes at a solid volume otherwise teams can sag/overplay his slashing threat). He also has a very linear style and more of a simple handle (plus simply less physical of a player) than an atypical athlete like Rai, so his translation will be interesting. Cameron is more of a shooter versus Brenchley, solid in attacking close-outs downhill to the rim, but less comfortable as a handler in terms of as a secondary handler (thus requiring more secondary creation elsewhere in lineups) and very turnover prone.
Possible weaknesses: a lot hinges on the two ⅔ men (Brenchley, Cameron) in being positive players and not struggling to translate offensively in a more athletic league as rim-oriented players, especially if they’re going to hinge on the 3 ‘big’ lineups (not a lot of on-ball creation other than LaQuincy there, a lot of onus on them to handle bigger on-ball usages as secondary creators) - there's not really a ‘Rai’ type you’d trust with a good level of secondary creation (Brenchley a lower usage player with handle/shiftiness concerns, Cameron very turnover prone with handle concerns).
Leicester Riders (Paternostro, 2nd):
5th (range of positions: 4th-7th)
Rob, as usual, has taken from the typical Leicester playbook in signing team-fit guys. Mike Mitchell Jr. is a team-first, smart guard who operates very well off-ball as a knockdown shooter, also capable of playmaking out of the PNR as the 1 decently well. Travis Evee is a primary-scorer type who fits incredibly well within offenses as a shifty rim-threat guard with great body control at the rim, good three-point off-the-dribble game, an awareness in kicking out/not forcing attacks at the rim and excellent relocation into threes-game. Nate Martin is a brilliant passer at the 5-spot, with the mobility to play in dribble hand-offs and pose a reject threat attacking the rim. Spencer re-signing is self explanatory. Tomiwa Sulaiman is a solid spot-up combo forward with handling utility in hand-offs, and an incredibly high motor in crashing the offensive boards. Emmanuel Akot can playmake as a supersized PNR handler at the 4-spot and used to playing some point-forward elsewhere. Denzel Mahoney was a very high-level pro prospect at Creighton (about 4-years ago) as an impactful starter with offensive responsibility both as a secondary PNR handler and as an expert spot-up player on a strong NCAA Tournament team.
Tomiwa and Akot will be very tough defenders at the forward spots (Tomiwa is one of my hidden DPOY candidates - he’s incredibly impactful, physical and gets steals and blocks at a very high rate), and Nate Martin is very versatile and a fluid mover (albeit might be a little exploitable in the post). If Denzel Mahoney manages to conjure up a time machine, he’ll be one of the most impactful on-ball defenders in the league (did a job as a 6’5”, 220lb wing guarding Jalen Suggs in the Tournament, defended anything from the 1 to the 4).
My concern, especially with the non-appearance of Johnny O’Neil (who I thought was going to be a key player in this league), is pure offensive juice. His alternative, Akot, has proven to be an inconsistent shooter (definitely not at the level of Johnny) at the pro level, and Tomiwa (who started last game) is a mediocre shooter. When Rob’s onus is on good spacing at his forward spots and players who can value-add off-ball (their whole roster practically last season were high-level off-ball players who could attack off-the-catch or shoot the three at a very good clip), this isn’t perfect. This, coupled with potential guard issues - could cascade into a sub-par offense. Mike Mitchell, as I mentioned previously, is a guard that is more valuable as a secondary-handling guard passing and relocating into off-ball threes than being an above league-average advantage creator on-ball. He really struggled with his PNR efficiency at Pepperdine and Minnesota, even if they’re teams at good conferences. He’s quite a linear player in terms of his handles, and isn’t too quick. Evee is a shifty guard that, despite his willingness to pass, isn’t a natural playmaker. Akot’s signing, from my perspective, is to counteract this dynamic, but he’s not Zach Jackson as a PNR handler.
Coupled with these concerns - Mike and Evee, size-wise in a league that is growing ever larger, coupled together (as they really have to considering their offensive skillsets) make lineups smaller and less outwardly strong defensively to compensate for this potential offensive weakness - when we’re talking margins at the top of the table (where Leicester and Rob will be aiming), that’s tough to overcome. Someone who I really like in Flynn Boardman-Raffet (he’ll prove to be a steal) might just be the key to unlocking this team considering his size and on-ball creation ability, but that’s asking a lot to shoulder that burden for a player coming straight from U-Sports in Canada.
Potential weaknesses: playmaking at the guard spots/offensive on-ball creation in general across lineups.
Tier 3A:
Bristol Flyers (Kapoulos, 7th)
6th (range of positions: 6th-9th)
The Flyers is an interesting roster construction. With certain personnel, Andreas Kapoulos constructed a very cohesive squad to operate well off of the dynamic primary handling of Cam Holden, seemingly looking to have him continue on his role from Cheshire last season and how he played at Towson in the past. Joe Anderson is a smart, undervalued PG pick-up from underheralded Lipscomb who shoots off-ball at a great clip with good movement and ‘slipperiness’ coupled with being an agile, shifty, penetrative small guard on-ball who has a surprising aptitude for getting to and finishing at the rim for his size. Zach Anderson is a lights-out shooter with excellent defense who has consistently shot 40%+ in college, and also has some PNR handling/playmaking skill and iso post-scoring from playing some point-forward in his past (although I doubt he’ll get to explore it much at Bristol). Will Yoakum’s pure skill is in either shooting the three at a good clip, or being a threat attacking close-out situations very efficiently (so great alongside Cam). Owen McCormack will space the floor well at the 5-spot for Cam.
Conversely, it feels as though there have been some mixed recruitment decisions that interfere with each other. The Zach, Milos Dugalic (especially - he was guarding point-guards in the Adriatic League last season at 6’9”) and Cam signings lean to a more versatile, switchy sort of tough defensive-minded team that looks to win on defense. Other signings have the opposite effect. J. Anderson has very active hands but was attacked mercilessly in the NCAA tournament vs. Iowa State due to his small frame and size. Darnell Brodie is a slow drop big type that has good footwork in backpedalling and is very strong physically, but is attackable out in space. It looks as though they have been recruiting floor-spacers around Cam, but have recruited Milos who can’t shoot and is solely looking to slash to the basket or play out of the post, or Darnell who needs to operate in the same places Cam wants to as a post big who isn’t partially good as a rim-roller due to his footspeed.
In terms of out and out offensive creation - I love Cam Holden, but he can be quite inefficient as a primary handler/offensive weapon (48TS% last season). Joe Anderson’s size makes it difficult for him to be too voluminous in creating his own points (always been a lower usage player). Elsewhere, Yoakum has a limited, linear handle and is mediocre at creating as a secondary handler. Zach Anderson struggles a lot as a finisher. Darnell struggles with turnovers a lot, and is a very static player in terms of hand-offs despite being a wonderful passer to shooters. I love that Jonathan Brown has been given the opportunity, but it will be asking a lot for him to be the back-up 1, especially given Joe Anderson’s limitations (which means both options have downsides).
Potential weaknesses: defensive weak-links for a seemingly defensive minded team coupled with offensive limitations/weaker firepower.
Newcastle Eagles (6th, Steutel)
7th (range of positions: 5th-9th)
The interesting one. Nominally, Newcastle have three players you’d want really playing the 1 or the 2 registered on their roster, and one is taking a big leap in levels from the Australian NBL1 and 2nd tier British NBLD1 (not helpful names), and has athletic limitations that’ll be tough to overcome at this level especially in creating on-ball. They have multiple registered non-shooting, undersized ⅘ men taking up import slots - and the potential to be forced into having two non-shooters on the floor for frequent stretches of games. The out-and-out 5-man they signed showed, quite obviously, his immediate and quite critical flaws and defensive/physical frailties in a game against Newcastle in the ENBL just last season, and, in his best pro season in a relatively equivalent league, racked up stats on a Swedish team that went 3-29. The two guards they signed (who aren’t taking a big leap, and would be expecting to handle a large part of Newcastle’s offense) are scoring-oriented guards, having various degrees of issues with coupling playmaking responsibilities alongside their scoring threat. Beside Josh-Ward Hibbert, there aren’t any ‘wing-like’ players who’d really fit at the 3 beside Cole Long who had a good proportion of his success last season playing as a small-ball 5 due to his relative quickness/skill deficits versus the usual wings in our league. There are multiple obvious holes/deficits that come off the page immediately when analysing their roster.
But there are bright spots (which is why I haven’t dropped them to last, or 8th) - Ray’Sean Taylor is a legit offensive talent who, as a floor-raising scorer tasked with handling the ball a lot, will at the very least elevate them to a certain level, and can threaten both on-ball and off. Caleb Huffman has issues of his own that made it so that he struggled in Lithuania, but is a very dynamic and quick guard that has game off-the-dribble, and can generate a solid volume of rim looks and kick-out from his gravity downhill. I dislike the signing generally, but Brett Reed is a very mobile and skilled face-up big that is a dual-threat in hand-off situations whether as a passer or in driving to the rim - they could run a lot of things through him/Marco Anthony as hand-off playmakers (and, despite him being very susceptible physically, will be able to move in space defensively). Josh Ward-Hibbert and Marco Anthony are versatile, selfless, pure energy players who defend hard which’ll hopefully plug some of the gaps elsewhere in lineups - could potentially create very interesting defensive lineups with the two and Cole Long even if offensively there could be some challenge (Marco Anthony is a physical powerhouse of a man who also is a great passer - wonderful in hand-off situations and being a screen-defender as a 5-man - hopefully him plus Darius will enable some good defensive lineups with either at the 5). Malcolm Smith is a versatile defender who can pass well out of the post (even if he’s an inefficient, undersized scorer at the 5/4 who’ll struggle elsewhere as a spot-up player/will need to be fed post-isos). Steutel likes unconventional lineups featuring odd player/size combinations (where they have certain toolsy defensive players who can add value there), and the roster clearly has some value as a transition team, so there’s the potential for something… maybe.
The argument is having enough talent versus the other teams beneath to counteract the janky, very odd roster. Having both Ray’Sean and Caleb, plus the relative depth they have probably takes them past the other two teams. Marco Anthony and JWH are pieces you could potentially build a strong defensive identity around, especially considering Josh’s disruptive point-of-attack defense against 1’s (ignoring some of the defensive deficiencies of the two starting guards plus Brett Reed at the 5).
Potential weaknesses: lack of shooting across the forward spots beside Cole Long, big punishable physicality deficit with Brett Reed, lack of guard depth, relative lack of playmaking at the guard spots/potential ball-movement issues.
Tier 3B:
Surrey 89ers (8th, Gardner)
8th (range of positions: 6th-9th)
Surrey have made their intentions known this off-season - they’re here to compete. Kino Lilly and Isiah Small as signings (dominated the Ivy League and commensurately got invited to the NBA Summer League, key cog in a shock upset win of the Danish League from long-time powerhouses Bakken respectively) are simply players that don’t step foot in Guildford typically. Couple that with an overseas pre-season tournament in Portugal, and it’s clear to see ambitions in the club are rising. Convincing Liga ACB side Zaragoza to loan out promising British 7-footer Haydn Ling is the result of their hard work with youth the past two seasons (Nedas, Di-Jani), and shows ambitions of wanting to integrate continental practises (as with loaning out Di-Jani to Hemel). Convincing promising young talent in Nedas and Tim Nwankwo (will get to him later) are also signs of their ambition/hard work internally in building a convincing environment for development paying off.
On the playing side, Kino Lilly looks like the livewire offensively as I fully expected he’d be. Constant threat from three, constantly moving into space off-ball. It is very interesting to see someone who looks like he shoots/performs better coming off of actions, or moving/tougher looks - his small frame (which manifests itself in his struggles in creating clean on-ball scoring opportunities) makes spot-up shooting on the arc slightly more difficult vs. extended distance. The theoretical synergy in the ½ spots is having a rim-threat guard in Ronald Polite, whose strength is in penetrating and kicking out to shooters, kicking out to Kino, but the real chemistry hasn’t really manifested yet. Isiah Small is simply a very smart and great complimentary player - endless length and great defensive impact, excellent connective passer, rebounds, easy points generation on cuts. Haydn Ling has an insane level of talent at the 5-spot - serious impact on the boards, almost unchallengeable at the rim (I’d almost rate him similar to Matt Nicholson in rim deterrence - which is saying a LOT), can move well in transition and finish with a level of physicality to him. There are aspects of rawness, and his mobility/willingness to guard in space was a relative issue in pre-season, but I’d look to see him supplant Michael Graham as the starting big as the season goes on. Owen Koonce can shoot at a good clip and handle secondary PNR reps fine, although his defense might be a touch concerning.
An issue that quickly became apparent during pre-season, was the fact that Ronald Polite’s relative rim-dependence in a packed paint where defenders can sag off the 4 (plenty an occasion in pre-season where the ball was swung/kicked-out to Isiah Small spotting up on the perimeter open promptly followed by a miss) coupled with a non-shooting big meant his actual threat in generating points for himself was minimal. There were flashes of Polite synergising with the shooting talent with his crafty way of slipping through driving angles generating open looks for shooters, but, also considering Kino Lilly’s relative weakness in creating on-ball (and lack of creation talent in Isiah, whose main strength is in being an incredible cutter and finisher around the basket, plus weakness in post-scoring), and this spells a certain level of dire omens for their offense if he’s going to struggle to create much. Andrew Lawrence will be a crucial player again (despite his unfortunate injury proneness). Kareem Queeley still struggles with his shot and showcases the issues he had as a prospect at the Lions two seasons ago, even though his defensive value as a lockdown guard defender will be strong considering Kino’s deficits and Ronald looking relatively undisciplined in pre-season (and potentially off-setting the on-ball creation issues of Kino/Ronald as an additional ball-handler in lineups).
As mentioned, Isiah’s lack of shooting is an issue with how Lloyd is playing him right now, often ending up on the wing where he isn’t able to be very impactful/where defenses can simply sag and shrink the floor, whereas in Svendborg he saw much more time in old traditional 4 spots and in the corners (where he can more easily cut from). We’ve seen his effectiveness and why I think he is a high level player, but this is an issue for Lloyd to figure out in the season (and considering the alternative in terms of shooting at the 4-spot is Tayo - it means we might see a lot of relying on wise-sage Tayo this season). Michael Graham had an impact on the boards (as predicted) and is more mobile a defender/less wild than Haydn, but underwhelmed, and looks very much the rock-bottom low usage player he was at LMU so far (where it feels they need more offensive impact). Nedas looked like the U20s EuroBasket iteration of himself forcing offense/struggling with his shot vs. the assured player he was late last season, where they very much need (and I hope) for him to be the latter.
I really think Haydn Ling, and juicing anything from Tim Nwankwo, besides crucially getting Ronald Polite to show more impact offensively, is the crucial piece of this season. Having an impact player like Haydn - who will genuinely alter offensive game-plans considering his ability to protect the rim, and who has a little more scoring ability vs. Graham - be an unexpected breakout is the type of thing that can alter the course of a season (like Jelani Watson-Gayle at Bristol in the VJ King year). I also think if Nwankwo can knock down the three at a semi-acceptable clip and sort out some of the defensive positioning/IQ issues (that are correctable), he could be very valuable considering his obvious versatile defensive tools and potential stretch ability (vs. Small’s issues) - and could offset the dependence on Tayo as that back-up 4/small-ball 5..
Potential weaknesses: on-ball creation, relative defensive frailties, issue at the 4-spot with a lack of shooting, lack of offensive production at the 5-spot.
Caledonia Gladiators (9th, Bunyan)
9th (range of positions: 6th-9th)
Honestly, I think the bottom four teams are tight. This is a tough decision, and someone had to go bottom.
Truthfully, I think this is a little harsh a spot, and the success of the Gladiators is malleable considering the potential high-level shooting at the ⅔ spot in addition to Jett Speelman. They have the potential for some very interesting defensive lineups considering some of their tools there - Daylen Williams is a legit ⅘ sized player who has the mobility to guard wings while having the physicality to be a value adding rebounder and solid post-defender, Toto Fagbenle is just a defensive freak capable of guarding anyone and Fraser Malcolm is a strong defender with versatility considering his 7-foot wingspan (this might just tip them over a team like Surrey for instance).
The issue is, for every identity they want to lean into, their recruitment/personnel limitations seemingly hold them back. They lack, in a very big and concerning way (might be a pattern with this end of the table) in on-ball creation and playmaking. Ria’n Holland is a difficult proposition to guard - off-ball, he attacks close-outs without mercy, darting straight to the rim with speed. He’s a good catch-and-shoot player, capable of hitting off-screens. On-ball, he’s very quick linearly with great body control and spring in finishing at the rim. He has a quick one-motion shot off-the-dribble that he can get to both behind the arc and in the mid-range. The issue is - he’s very much a combo-guard that’s quite focused on looking for his shot. He can get quite ball-dominant on-ball, forcing iso-situations for his own looks. Linearly he’s very quick, but in terms of shiftiness side-to-side in creating looks downhill, he is slightly less apt (and had some poor turnovers as a passer/decision-maker despite his solid TO%s).
He’s good at creating his own shot, but is less suitable creating for others in a team filled with linear spot-up players. Elsewhere, Matthew Ragsdale is a knockdown catch-and-shoot player if he gets any space. Off-the-dribble, he has a simple 1-2 dribble pull-up game that is also knockdown if he gets space - the big issue for him is creating that space. Handle-wise he is very, very limited, especially in a league like ours. Athletically he is quite concerningly slow - he will struggle creating beyond quick pull-ups from PNR situations (or provide much threat attacking off of spot-ups downhill). Daylen is a simple linear-game slasher (with a weak shot) off-closeouts with a weaker handle (although a surprising aptitude for passing). Toto turned the ball over every 1 in 5 possessions as one of the lowest usage players in the league. Speelman is a simple spot-up game player with average slashing threat, as with Fraser. Lineups with Ria’n and Kyle Jimenez would probably struggle a lot defensively. Kevin Allen can create his own points in the post but is desperately bad in passing out of the post or dealing with double teams (averaged four turnovers a game in Romania).
The question is whether Ethan Wright (as no one else in the roster can really handle any on-ball usage) can take up a lot of responsibility for that. We know he’s an exceptional spot-up player who is both a high-level slasher in advantage situations and a good shooter, but he’s primarily been a secondary/tertiary handler with not too much responsibility - what would he look like as a 2nd option handling the ball a lot as opposed to a high-level role player? I have a feeling something similar to Keddy Johnson (in that teams could gameplan and kill him in games - see Bristol’s win/loss/SLB Cup final) could happen. He has a VERY limited left-hand that’ll really hamper him as an object of defensive attention that’ll be a crucial part of the Gladiators’ on-ball creation. Obviously he’s a high-level straight-line player, but being tasked with actual value-adding dribble penetration is another issue (and he tends to settle as a pull-up player despite his good off-the-dribble shotmaking, where the Gladiators desperately need more playmaking) - not wise to have him as practically one of three players who could possibly handle any sort of on-ball usage.
It is also all well and good recruiting high-volume shooters at the ⅔ spots, but if teams can sag off of Daylen (mid 20’s% from three in college) or Toto and Kevin Allen is practically rooted to the block with less threat as a roller, your floor spacing will still be poor in those lineups.
In terms of defensive identity - lineups with any combination of Fraser and Toto will struggle offensively, especially considering the relative guard issues. Ria’n Holland averaged a good steals% but is undisciplined off-ball and quite slight/average laterally. Ragsdale is again slow, and Jett can be quite mediocre defensively. Kevin Allen was surprisingly quite solid moving his feet in Spain but still not perfect and struggles vertically despite his size. I think the Glads had the opportunity to create a very interesting team if they went a different, more mobile/switchy way at the 5-spot as opposed to getting in Kevin.
Potential weaknesses: roster-wide on-ball creation, odd roster fits.
Conclusion:
Honestly, I am extremely excited for this season. I genuinely believe that, even despite Lions’ roster spend, competition at the top end of the table is relatively possible. Cheshire are big wild-cards that could seriously disrupt the typical league placings this time around. I’ve written a lot about the possible downsides at the bottom end of the table, but the talent level is still very high (Surrey for instance in signing players they’d never even dream about in past years). The accumulative talent level across the board has never been seen on our shores and a sign of growth in our professional game, no matter the external factors that seek to detract from it. Sheffield and Manchester have recruited rosters that wouldn’t be out-of-place in the German BBL or ProA France for instance. Each tier is very tight, and features a certain level of mobility up and down.
Hopefully, if you are new to this sort of analysis, through this huge undertaking, you can get a glimpse of the various dynamics and levers that are really push-pull in recruiting a roster (prioritise one thing, take away another) - and what some teams have potentially looked to prioritise.
Bring on the season!
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